Inside North Korea: making sense of the conflict.
| | RISQ Reviews | 22 February 2003 |
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Author: Jang Kwang-Yul
 While the Bush administration is focusing on the issue of Iraq, US-North Korean tensions over nuclear weapons are rising quickly. If a war erupts, South Korea is inevitably drawn into conflict and the consequences would be devastating for all.
Although the European media do report on the conflict, North Korea seems difficult to understand for many Westerners. Indeed, without some knowledge of the history of the Korean peninsula and the deep political and military conflict separating the Korean people, the current crisis cannot be fully grasped. That is why I would like to offer here a review of the principle issues from the perspective of Solidarity of Korean People in Europe, an organisation of Koreans in Europe.
The 1994 Crisis
The North Korean issue today should be seen as a result of the collapse of the communist world and North Korea's ensuing survival strategy in response to a new era of US domination. So, let us go back to 1994 when the US almost decided to go to war with North Korea. According to an article on February 5, 2002 in the South Korean newspaper Hankyoreh, on May 18 1994, US generals gathered in a room of the Department of Defense. They estimated the effects of attacking North Korea to destroy its nuclear facilities. The next day the Secretary of Defense, William Ferry presented their estimate to then US president Bill Clinton. According to the briefing, if there were to be a war in Korean Peninsula, 52,000 American soldiers and 490,000 South Korean soldiers would be killed and hundreds thousands of civilian victims would perish in North Korea too. The costs for the US were estimated at 61 billion dollars.
In June 1994, General Gerry Luck, commander of US forces in Korea estimated that more than a million people would die if there were to be a war on the Korean peninsula, because cities in South and North Korea are densely populated. American casualties would range from 80~100 thousands. The cost of the war for the US was estimated at 100 billion dollar. Economic damage of the region including the destruction of property and disturbance of economic activity would ad up to one thousand billion dollars (one trillion).
If US bombing would destroy the Yongbyon reactor complex, of  which the US assumes it provided North Korea with weapon- grade plutonium, this will cause a serious disaster much like the Chernobyl accident. Furthermore, if North Korea is to initiate a total war as it claims, there is a danger of destruction of South Korean nuclear plants. There are twenty nuclear plants in South Korea. In this light, US President Clinton gave up on attacking North Korea and changed his policy to reaching an agreement with it.
The Geneva Agreement
North Korea and the US agreed on four main issues in 1994 in Geneva. North Korea's plutonium-based nuclear program was to be frozen and the US provided North Korea with light-water reactors. To solve the energy shortage the US promised to offer 500 thousand tons of oil while these new reactors were being built. Second, they agreed on normalizing their political and economic relationship. They promised to lower trade- and investment barriers and get rid of restrictions on communication and banking transactions. They decided to normalize their relation. Third, the US had to assure not to threaten the North with nuclear weapons and North Korea had to live up to its non-nuclear weapon policy. Forth, North Korea had to rejoin the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The Current Crisis
Now, hawkish voices in the Bush administration have brought back a scenario of war against North Korea. On February 3thrd , the US Secretary of Defense, Donald H. Rumsfeld, put 24 long-range bombers on alert for possible deployment to the Pacific. The US doesn't exclude attacking Yongbyon nuclear complex. According to a South Korean newspaper, Joong-Ang Ilbo, the Joint Headquarters of the US and South Korean Military forces made a plan to react on a possible North Korean count attack in case the US bombs the North Korean reactor complex. The two countries are preparing to deploy Patriot Missiles and other weapons to defend against North Korean artillery and missile attacks against the South.
Why does North Korea develop nuclear weapons?
Many people ask why North Korea tries to develop nuclear weapons while its people are suffering from hunger. To get the answer to this, one has to understand how serious the conflict is between North and South Korea. The US today deploys 37,000 troops in South Korea even though the Cold War is over. South Korea's military forces number around 600,000 troops.
The military budget of South Korea is twice as big as that of North Korea: South Korea 12,8 billion dollars, North Korea: 5,1 billion dollars (year 2002). On 9 March 2002, the LA Times revealed the 'Nuclear Posture Review Report' that was submitted to the US congress on 31 December 2001. In the report, it is said: "In setting requirements for nuclear strike capabilities, distinctions can be made among the contingencies for which the United States must be prepared. Contingencies can be categorized as immediate, potential or unexpected."..."Immediate contingencies involve well-recognized current dangers"... "Current examples of immediate contingencies include an Iraqi attack on Israel or its neighbors, a North Korean attack on South Korea, or a military confrontation over the status of Taiwan." The US thus plans to use nuclear weapons in the case of a North Korean attack on South Korea. The report very much unnerved North Korea. Every year the US and South Korea conduct large scale, joint-military exercises on the peninsula.
In the Cold War-era, North and South Korea were in a high state of tension and military competition. US nuclear weapons were deployed in South Korea. Although the Bush Sr. administration withdrew the nuclear missiles from South Korea in 1991, the country is still under the nuclear shield of the US. In the 70's, South Korean president Park Cheong-Hee planned to develop nuclear weapons in secret while America was against the plan. In October 1979 he was killed by the chief of the South Korean Central Intelligence Agency, Kim Jae-Kyu, who was regarded as the second powerful man in South Korea. The motive of the murder was never proven but it is said that the conflict with the US over developing a autonomous nuclear capability must have been a reason. High tensions in the region convinced North Korea to develop nuclear weapons.
North Korea's Foreign Policy
When the Soviet Union collapsed, many thought North Korea would collapse soon. North Korea was isolated and was not ready to change its economy to enter into the global market economy. North Korea needed to change its hostile relationship with the US to survive in the post-Cold War environment. The North Korean regime was very afraid of South Korea, especially because its economy was doing so much better than that of North Korea, causing the people of North Korea to prefer it over the North Korean system. That would mean North Korea would travel much the same road as former East Germany, leading to the ouster of the regime through popular revolt.
North Korea chose to improve its relation with the US while keeping a distance from South Korea. In 1993 North Korea tested its Rodong-1 missile, capable of hitting targets at 1,000-1,300 Km such as Tokyo and Taipei. This forced the US to sit down with North Korea and talk in order to keep the peace in the region. The regime had a nuclear plant that could be used to make nuclear weapons. The two nations began difficult talks to stop the development of the reactor complex at Yongbyon. The talks almost broke down to war, but the two sides chose to compromise in October 1994.
The Geneva Agreement Revisited
Meanwhile, it turned out to be difficult for the U.S to organize a consortium with South Korea, Japan and the European Union to start constructing the two nuclear reactor complexes they had promised in Geneva. These projects would cost 4,6 billion dollars of which South Korea had to pay 3,2 billion dollars and Japan had to pay 1 billion dollars. The US and the EU had to pay the rest. Talks to share the burden were not easy. Japan didn't want to offer the money because North Korean missiles directly threatened Japan. Talks were supposed to have been finished in 2003, but until now this process has been set back for years, to be finalised in 2007-9 -if all goes well.
Economic Sanctions
The US still puts North Korea in the category of enemy countries. The US agreed to lift the sanctions against North Korea in January 1995. But when North Korean forces shot down an American espionage helicopter while it flew over the border into North Korean airspace, the US changed its mind and refused to lift the embargo. North Korea constantly asked for lifting the sanctions but the US were decided not to do so.
North Korean can't export its products to the US because the tariff barriers are much higher than for other countries. For example, China enjoys the status of 'Most Favored Country'. The tariff for North Korean products is more than twice that for Chinese produce.
U.S tariffs: China and North Korea
|
China |
North Korea |
| Clothing |
4.2-27.8% |
45-90% |
| Electronics |
0-5% |
35% |
| Shoes |
9% |
20-34.5% |
Source: South Korean weekly magazine Hankyoreh 21, 10 October 2002
What caused the 1998 crisis?
In August 1998, the New York Times disclosed through satellite imagery that North Korea was building an underground nuclear facility in Kumchangri, nearby already well-known Yongbyon. A US military official leaked the information to the press. On 31, August, North Korea testfired a long distance missile. The US, Japan, and South Korea had not detected it even though they had kept close eyes on all military activities of North Korea. North Korea said that the rocket was carrying a satellite, leaving neighbouring countries wondering. If North Korea could launch a satellite it can launch an intercontinental missile too.
The US Congress, now dominated by hawks, was upset. They argued that North Korea had broken the 1994 agreement because it had built a secret underground nuclear facility . Congress rejected the budget for the oil-supply-for-North Korea deal and asked the administration to take a hard line. The US and North Korea then conducted talks over inspecting the suspected underground production facility. North Korea agreed to show the place. When North Korea showed the alleged nuclear facility in Kumchangri in May 1999, it turned out to be an empty tunnel and the US inspectors found nothing.
Republicans distrust North Korea
In the US presidential election race in 2000, Condoleezza Rice was Foreign Policy advisor to Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush. In a March/April 2000 Foreign Affairs article, Rice argued that the North Korean side had blackmailed the US into the Geneva agreement in order to solve the nuclear crisis, labelling the Clinton policy a very dangerous approach. She argued the US should prevent any further actions by North Korean leader Kim Jeong-Il, an idea widely shared in the Republican Party.
What happened between South and North recently?
In June 2000, South and North Korea held a summit meeting and improved their relationship. Separated families met after half a century. Musicians, sportsmen, religious group visited the other side. The railways and traffic roads once connecting North and South Korea are to be restored soon. South Korean tourists will go through the demilitarized zone to Mount Kumgang and South Korean companies will be building factories in the North.
Has North Korea really changed?
 North Korea is changing so fast that many South Koreans cannot believe it. Most of all, its economy is changing drastically. On July 1 2002 North Korea embarked on a course of economic reform. First, companies are not anylonger to be run by the central planning bureau but have to organize production themselves. The central government will provide macro economic plans only , leaving details to the companies and regional governments. Second, companies are to find customers themselves. The reforms allow them to do business with foreign partners. Third, the price system has been changed. The price of rice has been made to correspond with market prices. Before this, the administration gathered l kg of rice for 80 Jeon (cent) and distributed it for 8 Jeon. The government had to cover the price difference, causing corruption. Farmers preferred to sell the rice to burgeoning black markets.
Now the government gathers l kg rice for 40 won (100 Jeon=1 Won) and sells it at 44 Won. The price is based on prices prevailing on the black market. The salaries of the workers also have risen about 20 times and the workers get a bonus when their labour leads to an increase in productivity. Also, prices for services such as public transportations and housing have become realistic. The authorities attempt to learn market economisc from the West too. Hundreds of government officers and businessmen visited western countries to learn the way of business and officers of economic affairs go abroad to attract foreign investors.
What has happened between the Bush administration and North Korea?
Since Bush was chosen as the president of the US there has been little talk between the two sides. Main obstacle are the missile and nuclear issues. The Bush administration has set up its mega-project Missile Defense System. According to the US Congressional Budget Office, costs total over 100 billion dollars over 25 years. To get the permission from the US Congress and public opinion, the Bush administration is using the threat of North Korean missiles and nuclear weapons. A video of the launching of a North Korean missile has been shown on US television repeatedly and North Korea has been called a "rogue state" along with Iran, Iraq, and Syria. In 2002, George W. Bush named Iran, Iraq and North Korea to constitute an 'Axis of Evil'. Bush flat-out ignored the agreements between the Clinton administration and North Korea. When US envoy James Kelly finally visited North Korea in October 2002, many people expected positive development. But Kelly brought back bad news. When he raised the US suspection of secret nuclear weapons program in their two days talks, North Korea admitted as much on the second day.
According to weekly magazine Hankyoreh 21, North Korean vice-minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Seok-Joo told Kelly North Korea had a nuclear weapon program and critisized the Bush administration for calling it part of an 'Axis of Evil' and for deploying US troops in South Korea. He added that North Korean weaponprograms are reactions to hostile policies of the Bush administration towards North Korea. On the one hand one can say North Korea had to take responsibility for keeping to the 1994 agreement. On the other hand the US has not tried hard enough to improve the relationship. North Korea continuously asked for the US to lift its economic sanctions, acknowledge Kim Jung-Il as the leader of the country, and sign a peace treaty between North Korea and the US. The Bush administration used North Korea as a missile and nuclear threat to the US in order to legitimize and start developing its Missile Defense System.
The impact of energy shortages.
The US cancelled the delivery of 500 thousand tons of oil because North Korea had admitted to its program for the development of a nuclear weapon. This will cause a serious oil shortage in North Korea. The country is highly  dependent on oil to generate energy. Since the Soviet block collapsed, North Korea has had problems providing itself with energy. Before its collapse, the Soviet Union had delivered oil at a cheap price (20 Ruble for 1 ton oil). But since its collapse, North Korea has been forced to pay market prices. Energy shortages will bring industrial activity to a halt. Since 1989, North Korea has produced less and less energy and with the lack of electricity many factories are now at a standstill.
A good example is fertilizer production: it was reduced very much causing bad harvests in the 1990's. The flood in 1995 and 1996 worsened the food shortage. South Korea, Japan, and the US then started providing fertilizers under aid programs. An average North Korean household can only light a 40W lamp for 24 hours. In 1999 the electricity production of the North was 18 billion KWh while that of the  South was 239 billion KWh. North Korea was able to produce only 7.8% of South Korea energy production.
North Korea is prepared to respond to a possible attack of the US on Yongbyon reactor complex. Unless the US is willing to risk an all-out war with North Korea, the conflict between the two countries will drag on. While North Korea requests direct talks with the US over the nuclear weapons and missile issue, the US demands North Korea to give up its secret nuclear weapon program. It is a battle for time. Unless both sides start talking soon, the US will put pressure on neighbouring countries to cut aid to North Korea. This will cause a serious economic crisis. On the other hand, North Korea may obtain enough plutonium to produce 5 or 6 nuclear weapons. The US can choose to begin talking, to attack the reactor complex, or to confront a new country with nuclear weapons.
What does North Korea really want?
While the tensions between North Korea and US surge, South and North Korea have been engaged in talks and co-operation. North Korea wants to negotiate over the nuclear weapon and missile issues in exchange for a non-intervention treaty, lifting of the economic sanctions, and normalisation of the bilateral relationship. Ever since the communist world collapsed, North Korea is isolated. It wants to open the door and reform its weak economy while it keeps its political system intact. North Korea wants to follow the way of China. This analysis is widely shared by most South Korean experts on North Korea.
Conclusion: War or dialog?
President Bush said in his State of Union-speech that he would not be blackmailed. He said many times that he would solve the North Korean issue through dialogue, but yet he ignored North Korea's suggestions for direct talks. It seems that Bush wants to put the North Korean issue aside while his attention needs to be focussed on Iraq. Bush is already having a hard time convincing countries still much in doubt over a war on Iraq. If the Iraq issue is accomplished, Bush will turn to North Korea next. On 29 January, Tony Blair said in the British parliament that he would put North Korea on the agenda after Iraq. The reason why Bush doesn't take military action against North Korea now is simply because the US can't conduct two wars at the same time. For the peace of the world we ask the US to engage in direct talks with North Korea. As the President of South Korea, Kim Dae-Jung said, there is no other choice than dialogue.
Published on 22 February 2003 by RISQ
© Jang Kwang-Yul | www.risq.org
All rights reserved.
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